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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."