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Back in 2018, it took just eight words to electrify a Labour conference and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position & Closed Issues

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

However, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While EU relations is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap which was tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing youths can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again cautioning that rejoining a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document & Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It includes a single mention to Britain, placed beside a suggestion that the US government may interfere in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from concluding that this renders America an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost of 2018

This situation brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the possibility of remain in a future vote. Indeed, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Danger & A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise of him to remember the impact that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.