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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest shock.

However this year's competition is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans rising in unison. In an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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