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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.